Earlier this week we joined the Ops Club breakfast roundtable, “Reforecast – The Government Budget Announcement Review – What You Need to Know!” to unpack what the latest UK Budget really means for hospitality.

Chaired by Tom Stanley, Founder and CEO of hospitality accountants Williams Stanley & Co, and Alison Wong, CFO of boutique hotel chain House of Gods, the general gist is that the budget is not as bad as many feared, but it’s nowhere near enough to unlock real growth.

And the headline for operators? It won’t just be wages or business rates under pressure: the whole P&L is going to feel it.

The Budget: Less Brutal, Still Not Friendly

Key takeaways:

• Business rates: A 5p reduction sounds helpful, but 2026 is a revaluation year. Many sites will still see meaningful increases. You should be modelling those now.
• Wage costs: Employer national insurance contributions are frozen, but you should still expect 5–7% increases in your wage bill.
• Energy: Prices have stabilised, but at a higher baseline than pre-2021. No big falls on the horizon.

And it’s not just your own P&L: Every supplier, every service provider, every partner is facing the same pressures, and they’ll pass them through.

What Was Missing, and Why It Matters

The room was blunt about what didn’t change:

• No VAT relief for hospitality
• A government that still doesn’t seem to see hospitality as economically critical, more as a luxury good. Which might explain why hospitality doesn’t feel listened to.

That means no cavalry is coming. The sector’s resilience will have to come from operational decisions, not policy wins.

The Good News: Where Operators Do Have Levers

Despite the mood, there were some genuine positives:

• Apprenticeships: A fully funded scheme for younger workers is coming. For hospitality, that’s a big opportunity: funded training, better retention, and clearer pathways.
• EIS, SEIS & VCT: Investment thresholds are increasing, making it easier to raise growth capital, especially if you can frame a new or adjacent trade.
• Property: More already-fitted sites are coming to market, and landlords are more open to contributions and creative deals. For lean, fast-moving brands, there are real opportunities to expand at lower capex.

Productivity, Not Just Cost-Cutting

Everyone in the room agreed: the easy cuts have already been made.

The next phase is true productivity:

• Removing friction from staff workflows
• Using tech (including AI) to take out low-value admin
• Rethinking rotas based on actual demand patterns, not pre-Covid habits
• Protecting the guest experience while getting leaner

It’s not about endlessly trimming 15 minutes from shifts. It’s about designing the operation so teams can do more of what guests value, with less wasted effort.

Annual Budgets Are Dead (On Their Own)

One of Alison’s strongest points was that annual budgets aren’t fit for this environment. They’re starting points, not targets carved in stone.

What operators around the table are doing instead:

• Monthly reforecasting as standard
• Weekly cashflow reviews
• Bonus structures split between:
  • Short sprints (e.g. 4–6 weeks) focused on specific KPIs like spend per head, guest sentiment or margin
  • A smaller, longer-term profit-linked pot that flexes with reality

For a workforce with shorter attention spans and higher cost-of-living pressure, more frequent, micro-incentives are proving far more motivating than one big annual carrot that may never materialise.

Thanks to Ops Club Founder Travis Fish for the invitation!